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　 By

　Seth

　G.

　J ones,

　C ATRINA

　Doxsee,

　N ICHOLAS

　H ARRINGTON ,

　Gr ACE

　H WANG ,

　&

　J AMES

　S uber

　THE

　IS SUE

　OC T OBER

　2020 White

　supr EMACISTS

　AND

　other

　like-minded

　extr emists

　conducted

　two-thir ds

　of

　the

　terr orist

　plots

　AND

　ATTACKS

　in the

　United

　S TATES

　in 2020,

　ACCOR ding

　to

　new

　CSIS

　DATA .

　A NAR chists,

　ANTI - F ASCISTS ,

　AND

　other

　like-minded

　extr emists

　or chestr ATED

　20

　per cent

　of

　the

　plots AND

　ATTACKS ,

　though

　the

　number

　of

　incidents

　gr ew

　fr om

　pr evious

　YEARS

　AS

　these

　extr emists

　TAR geted

　LAW

　enf or cement ,

　MILITAR y ,

　AND

　gover nment

　f ACILITIES

　AND

　personnel .

　Despite

　these

　findings,

　however ,

　the

　number

　of

　f ATALITIES

　fr om

　domestic

　terr orism

　is

　r ELATIVELY

　low

　COMPAR ed

　to

　pr evious

　YEARS .

　INTRODUC TION

　Ther e has

　been gr owing concern

　about the

　thr eat of domestic

　terr orism,

　with

　extr emists

　motivated by

　political, r acial,

　ethnic,

　ec onomic,

　health,

　and

　other grievances. In

　October 2020, the

　FBI

　arr ested Adam

　F ox ,

　Barr y

　Croft , and

　sever al other acc omplices

　in

　a

　plot to

　kidnap

　and potentially

　execute

　Michigan

　Governor Gr etchen

　Whitmer . Members of

　this

　network ,

　which

　had

　ties

　to

　militias

　in Michigan

　and

　other states,

　r ef err ed to

　Governor Whitmer as

　a

　“tyr ant ”

　and

　claimed

　that

　she

　had

　“unc ontrolled

　power

　right now . ” 1

　 They

　also discussed kidnapping

　Vir ginia Governor R alph

　N ortham,

　in

　part

　because of

　his

　lock down or ders

　to

　slow

　the

　spr ead

　of

　Covid-19. 2

　Some

　U.S.

　government

　agencies have outlined

　the

　thr eat fr om

　domestic

　extr emists,

　though

　most

　have not

　pr ovided r ecent

　data

　about terr orist incidents.

　In

　its

　H OMELAND

　Thr EAT

　Assessment

　r eleased in

　October 2020, the

　U.S.

　Department of

　Homeland

　Security concluded

　that

　“ r acially and ethnically

　motivated violent

　extremists—specifically

　white supr emacist

　extr emists

　( WSEs)—will

　r emain

　the

　most persistent

　AND

　LETHAL

　thr EAT

　in

　the

　Homeland . ” 3

　 The

　r eport

　also as ses sed that

　anarchists and

　other individuals

　inspired by

　anti-government

　and

　anti-authority

　ideologies posed a thr eat .

　But

　it

　did not

　pr ovide 2020

　data.

　The

　F eder al Bur eau of

　In vestigation similarly ar gued that

　the

　“top thr eat we face

　fr om

　domestic

　violent

　extr emists”

　is fr om

　r acially-

　and ethnically-motivated

　violent

　extr emists,

　including

　white supr emacists. 4

　 N evertheles s,

　FBI

　officials have not

　publicly r eleased their

　data,

　making

　it

　difficult

　f or

　U.S.

　civilians

　to judge the

　degr ee and

　type of

　thr eat .

　T o help

　fill

　this

　gap, this

　analysis pr ovides new data

　on

　the

　domestic

　terr orist thr eat in

　the

　United

　States.

　It

　asks sever al questions.

　What

　ar e the

　main

　tr ends

　in

　domestic terr orism in

　2020

　in

　such

　ar eas

　as

　terr orist motivaton, tactics,

　and

　tar gets? How

　did 2020

　c ompar e to

　pr evious years?

　T o answer

　these

　questions,

　the

　authors c onstructed a

　data

　set of

　terr orist attacks and

　plots in

　the

　United

　States fr om

　January

　1,

　2020

　to

　A ugust 31, 2020, which

　upda a br oader

　CSIS

　data

　set of

　terr orist incidents

　in

　the

　United States fr om

　1994

　to

　2020. 5

　Based

　on

　the

　data,

　this

　analysis has

　sever al findings,

　which ar e discussed at gr eater

　length

　later

　in

　this

　as ses sment .

　 The

　W ar

　Comes

　Home

　The

　Evolution

　of

　Domestic

　T err orism

　in the

　United

　S TATES

　BRIEFS

　First ,

　white

　supr emacists and

　other lik e-minded

　extr emists conducted

　67

　percent of

　terr orist plots and

　attacks in

　the United

　States in

　2020. They

　used vehicles,

　explosives, and

　fir earms

　as

　their

　pr edominant

　weapons and

　tar geted demonstr ators

　and

　other individuals

　because of

　their

　r acial, ethnic,

　r eligious,

　or

　political

　mak eup—such

　as

　African Americans,

　immigr ants,

　Muslims,

　and

　Jews. Sec ond,

　ther e was

　a

　rise

　in

　the

　number of

　anarchist ,

　anti-fascist ,

　and

　other lik e-minded

　attacks and

　plots in

　2020

　c ompar ed to

　pr evious years,

　which

　c omprised 20

　percent of

　terr orist incidents

　(an incr ease

　fr om

　8

　percent in

　2019). These

　types of

　extr emists used explosives and

　incendiaries

　in

　the

　majority of

　attacks, f ollowed by

　fir earms. They

　also tar geted police,

　militar y ,

　 government

　personnel and

　facilities.

　Thir d,

　far-left and

　far-right violence

　was

　deeply intertwined—cr ea

　a

　clas sic

　“ security dilemma . ” 6

　 Since

　it

　is difficult

　to

　distinguish between offensive

　and

　defensive

　weapons, armed individuals

　fr om

　various

　sides r eacted to

　each

　other during pr otests and

　riots,

　and

　each

　side’ s

　eff orts

　to

　pr otect

　itself

　and acquir e weapons generally thr eatened others.

　Despite

　these

　findings,

　this

　violence

　needs to

　be understood in

　historical context .

　The

　number of

　fatalities fr om

　terr orist attacks in

　the

　U.S.

　homeland

　is still

　r elatively small

　c ompar ed to

　some

　periods

　in

　U.S.

　histor y ,

　making

　it

　important

　not

　to

　overstate the

　thr eat . 7

　 Roughly half

　of the

　years

　since

　1994

　had

　a

　gr EATER

　number of

　fatalities fr om

　terr orism than

　2020—at

　least between January

　1

　and

　A ugust 31, 2020. Ther e wer e also no

　mas s- casualty terr orist attacks,

　a

　stark

　c ontrast fr om

　such

　incidents

　as

　the

　April 1995

　Oklahoma

　City

　bombing ,

　which

　killed

　168

　people;

　the

　September 2001

　attacks,

　which

　killed

　nearly 3,000 people; and

　the

　June

　2016

　Orlando

　attack ,

　which

　killed

　49

　people.

　Still,

　violence

　levels in

　the

　United

　States c ould rise

　over

　the

　next

　year

　depending

　on

　political

　polarization, the

　persistence of

　the

　Covid-19

　pandemic

　(and r eactions

　to

　polic y

　decisions

　to

　mitigate

　its

　spr ead), worsening ec onomic

　c onditions,

　gr owing concerns

　about immigr ation (whether r eal or

　perceived), r acial injustice,

　or

　other factors.

　It

　is also pos sible that

　the

　or ganizational structure of

　extr emism

　c ould evolve fr om

　today ’ s

　decentr alized landscape to

　include

　more hierarchically structured gr oups.

　The

　r est of

　this

　r eport

　is divided into

　thr ee sections.

　The first defines

　terr orism and

　diff er entiates

　this

　r eport ’ s f ocus on

　terr orism fr om

　other phenomena,

　such

　as

　hate

　crimes and

　riots.

　The

　sec ond

　section

　outlines

　and analyzes the

　2020

　terr orism data.

　The

　thir d

　explor es f uture developments,

　including

　the

　potential

　f or

　violence

　after the

　2020

　pr esidential

　election.

　DEFINING

　TERRORISM

　This

　r eport

　f ocuses on

　terrorism—not

　other is sues,

　such as

　hate

　crimes,

　pr otests,

　riots,

　or

　br oader

　civil

　unrest .

　Terr orism is the

　deliber ate use—or

　thr eat—of

　violence

　by non-state

　actors

　in

　or der

　to

　achieve

　political

　goals

　and

　cr eate a

　br oad

　psy chological

　impact . 8

　 V iolence

　and

　the

　thr eat of

　violence

　ar e important

　components

　of

　terr orism.

　This analysis divides terr orism into

　sever al categories:

　r eligious, ethnonationalist ,

　violent

　far-right ,

　violent

　far-left ,

　and

　other (which

　includes

　terr orism that

　does not

　fit

　neatly

　into

　an y

　of

　the

　other categories). 9

　 T erms such

　as

　far-right and

　far-left terr orism do not

　c orr espond to

　mainstr eam political

　parties in

　the

　United

　States,

　such

　as

　the

　Republican and

　Democr atic parties, which

　eschew terr orism.

　N or

　do they

　c orr espond to

　vast majority of

　political

　c onservatives and

　liberals

　in the

　United

　States,

　who do not

　support

　terr orism.

　Instead, terr orism is orchestrated by

　a

　small

　set of

　violent

　extr emists. A s

　terr orism scholar Walter

　L aqueur

　ar gues,

　“terr orist movements

　ar e usually small; some

　ver y

　small

　indeed,

　and while

　historians

　and

　sociologists can

　sometimes

　acc ount

　f or

　mas s

　movements,

　the

　movements

　of

　small

　particles in politics

　as

　in

　ph ysics often

　def y

　an y

　explanation . ” 10

　R eligious

　terr orism

　includes

　violence

　in

　support

　of

　a

　faith- based

　belief

　system,

　such

　as

　Islam,

　Judaism,

　Christianity ,

　or Hinduism.

　The

　primary

　thr eat fr om

　r eligious terr orists in

　United

　States comes

　fr om

　Salafi-jihadists

　inspired by the

　Islamic

　State and

　al-Qaeda. 11

　 E THNONATIONALIST

　terr orism r ef ers

　to

　violence

　in

　support

　of

　ethnic

　or

　nationalist

　goals, which

　often

　include

　struggles

　of

　self-determination

　and separ atism

　along ethnic

　or

　nationalist

　lines.

　Due

　to

　the r elatively low

　levels of

　ethnonationalist

　terr orism in

　the United

　States—no

　such

　incidents

　occurr ed in

　2020—this brief does not

　addr es s

　ethnonationalist

　terr orism. 12

　 F AR - right

　terr orism

　r ef ers

　to

　the

　use or

　thr eat of

　violence

　by subnational

　or

　non-state

　entities

　whose goals

　may include r acial or

　ethnic

　supr emac y;

　opposition

　to

　government authority; anger

　at women,

　including

　fr om

　the

　in voluntar y celibate (or

　“incel”)

　movement ;

　belief

　in

　certain c onspirac y theories,

　such

　as

　QAnon;

　and

　outr age

　against certain policies,

　such

　as

　abion. 13

　 Some

　extr emists

　on

　the

　violent far-right have supported “ acceler ationism, ”

　which

　includes taking

　actions

　to

　pr omote

　social upheaval and

　incite

　a

　civil

　war . 14

　 F AR - LEFT

　terr orism

　in volves the

　use or

　thr eat of violence

　by

　subnational

　or

　non-state

　entities

　that

　oppose capitalism,

　imperialism,

　and

　colonialism;

　advocate black nationalism;

　pursue en vir onmental

　or

　animal

　rights issues; espouse pr o- c ommunist

　or

　pr o-socialist

　beliefs; or support

　a

　decentr alized

　social and

　political

　system such

　as

　anarchism. 15

　 Other

　in volves the

　use or

　thr eat of

　violence

　by subnational

　or

　non-state

　entities

　that

　do not

　neatly

　fit

　into an y

　of

　the

　above

　categories, such

　as

　the

　anti-government Boogaloo

　movement ,

　whose adher ents

　aim

　to

　start

　a

　civil war

　(or

　“ boogaloo”)

　in

　the

　United

　States. 16

　In

　f ocusing

　on

　terr orism,

　this

　r eport

　does not

　c over

　thbr oader

　cate...

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