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美国牙医调查:牙医需求似乎稳定(全文完整)

2022-07-02 17:45:03 来源:网友投稿

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美国牙医调查:牙医需求似乎稳定(全文完整)

 

 Equit y

 R es ea r ch A mer ic a s

 |

 U nit ed

 S ta tes

  ■ 4 Q

 D e n ta l

 P r ac ti c e

 V o l u me ,

 R e v e n ue

 G r o w th

 M o d e st l y

 Im p r o v e s :

 A cc or din g

 to

 our pr opr iet a r y

  s ur vey

  o f

  75

  U S

  de nta l

  pr a ct it ioner s ,

  54 %

  of

  pr a ct i ces

  ex perien ced

 pos it ive r evenue

  g r ow th

  in

  4 Q ,

  r ising

  1 . 1 %

  ( w eig hted

  avg . ) ,

  a

 s li g ht

  s equenti a l

  a cc eler a ti on

  f r om our

  3 Q

  s ur vey

  ( + 1 . 0 % ) .

  N ew

  p a ti ent

  tr a ff ic

  ( + 1.6 % )

  w a s

  the

  m os t

  m ea ning f ul

  dr ive r

  o f pr a ct ic e

 r evenues ,

  f ol lowed

  by

  b r idg es

  a nd

  impla nts

  ( + 1.3 % ) ,

  pr eventa ti ve

  ( + 1.0 % ) ,

  a nd a cut e

 visits

  ( + 1.0 % ) .

  R es pondents

  r em a in

  opti m istic

  on

  NT M

  t r ends

 w it h

  68 %

  e x pect in g impr oved

 pr a ct ic e

  volume,

 a

  nic e

  impr ovement

 f r om

 the

 3 Q

 ex per ienc e

  ( 64 % ) ,

 w it h pr a ct ic e volume

 e x pected

 to

 g r o w

 + 2.0 % ,

 a hea d

 of

 the

 3 Q

 e x pe r ienc e ( + 1.9 % ) .

 While

 the tr ends

 indi ca te

  no

  m ea ning f ul

  t ur na r ound

  in

  denta l

  dem a nd,

  w e

 a r e

 encour a g ed

  by

  the s ta bil it y ,

 providin g

 a ba r om eter

 of

 per f o r m ance f o r

 ou r

 denta l

 cove r a g e univer s e,

 consisten t w it h

 our

 Q T D

 c onver s a ti ons with

 i ndus tr y

 c ons ti tuent s

 ( s ee GN Y

 Denta l

 S umm it

 note) .

 ■ E q u i p me n t — D i g i ta l

 D e n ti str y

 D r i v e r s

 i n

 I nn o v at i o n :

 T he

  NT M

  outl ook

  on

  equipment pur cha s ing

 w a s

 es s enti a ll y

 in - li n e w it h

 3 Q ,

 point ing

 to

 s us ta ined

 hea lt hier

 tr ends r ela ti ve

 to F Y 18 / 1 H19,

  a lbei t

  w it h

  pr a ct it i oner s

  s ti ll

  li k ely

  w a r y

  of

  la r g e r

  ca s h

  outl a y s

  on

  br oa der m a cr o

 conc er ns ,

 r eimbu r s em ent

 pr es s ur es ,

 a nd

 DS O

 compe titi on.

 We

 m a int a in

 ou r pos it ive

  thesis

  on

  D e n tsp l y

  S i r o n a

  ( X RA Y,

  O P )

  a midst

  a

 tur na r ound

  s tor y

  a s

  2019 pr oduct

 la unches of f er

 ups ide

 to

 2020

 e s ti m a tes

 on

 potent ia ll y

 a cc eler a ti ng

 t r a ct ion.

 While XR A Y ’s

 P r i m e sc an

  of f er ing

 c lea r ly

 r em a ins

 in

 ea r ly

 da y s

 of

 a dopti on,

 w it h

 pr ic ing potent ia ll y

  a ct ing

  a s

  a

 deter r ent

  to

  br oa der

  m a r k et

  penetr a ti on,

  w e

 a r e

 opti m istic

  on

  it s r ecent ly

 la unched

 up g r a de

 p r o g r am ,

 w hic h

 s hould

 s pur

 f ur t her

 dem a nd ,

 w hil e

  a lso pr om oti ng

  consum a bles

  s a les.

  I ts

  O ne

  DS

  upg r a de

  pr og r a m

  enr oll ment

  ha s

  exceeded int er na l

  f o r eca s ts

  ( 1.5 x

  denti s t s

  vs .

  pla n) ,

  a nd

  br oa der

  pr a ct i ti oner

  r e cog nit ion

  of

  the pr og r a m

  w a s

  r es pect a ble

  ( 24 % ) ,

  ba s ed

  on

  our

  s ur vey ,

  a nd

  w e

 view

  g r ea ter

  a w a r enes s s hould

 s uppor t

 g r ow th

 over

 ti m e .

  F or

 A li g n

 Te c h n o l o g y

 ( ALGN ,

 O P ) ,

 it s

 iTer o

  r em a ined t he

  lea ding

 int r a or a l

 s ca nner

 ( 16 %

  of

 tot a l

 r es pondents;

  48 %

  of

 dig it a l

 impr es s ion

  us er s ) . N ote,

 A L GN

 c onti nues t o

 pr i ce

 it s

 i T ero

 lower

 t ha n

 competit ive

 o ff er ing s .

 ■ Cl e ar

  A l i g n e r s – Few

  S u r p r i se s :

  ALGN

 D o mi n at e s ;

  D TC

  Rem ain s

  Co n c e r n

  fo r P r ac titi o n e r s :

 T he

  m a jor i ty

  ( 61 % )

  of

  cl ea r

  a li g ner

  us er s

  ex pect

  dem a nd

  to

  r ise

 over

  the NT M,

 la r g ely

 d r iven

 by

 m a r k e ti ng

 ef f or ts

 f r om

 m a jor

 comp a n ies,

 w it h

 volume

 a lso s uppor ted

  by

  a

 r ising

  ba s e

 of

  t r a ined

  pr a ct it ione r s .

  T ha t

  s a id,

  a

 m a jor it y

  of

  p r a ct it ioner s r em a in

 conc er ned

 by

 disr upti ve

 d ir ect - to - consum er

 ( DTC )

 conc ep ts,

 li k e S mi l e D i r e c tCl u b ( S D C,

 OP ) ,

  a s

  pa ti ents

  s ee k

  m or e

 cost - ef f ect ive

  s olut ions

  w it h

  DTC

  a ver a g e

 li s t

  pr ic e

 in the

  ~ $1 ,8 95

  r a ng e

 ( ~ 60 %

  discount ) .

  N ote,

  thi s

  coul d

  r epr es en t

  a

 ba rr ier

  to

  a dopti on

  of S DC ’s

 r ecent

 pr a ct it ione r

 s tr a teg y .

 Mea nw hil e,

 a cr os s

 the

 doct or - dir ect ed

 m a r k et,

 A L GN ’ s Invis a li g n

  r e m a ins

  the

  cl ea r

  m a r k et

  lea der ,

  w it h

  52 %

  of

  our

  cohor t

  cu rr ent ly

  o ff e r in g Invis a li g n

 ( 93 %

 of

 cl ea r

 a li g ner

 us e r s ) ,

 w it h

 > 70 %

 of

 ca s es

 tr ea ted

 w it h

 it s

 m or e compr ehen s ive

  Invis a li g n

  F ull

  o ff er ing .

  W e

 cont inue

  to

  a w a it

  g r ea ter

  tr a ct ion

  f o r

  Invis a li g n Go

 f or

 G Ps

 a nd

 Ma ndibul a r

 A dva ncement.

 We

 a lso

 note

 cont inued

 enthusia s m

 f or

 XR A Y ’s S ur eS m il e ,

  uti li zed

  by

  5 %

  of

  r es pondents

  ( 10 %

  of

  cl ea r

  a li g ne r

  us er s )

  in

  our

  s ur vey ,

  w it h r es pondents

 hig hli g hti ng

 i ts

 qua li ty .

 Rese ar c h

 An aly sts

 Er i n

 W il so n

 W ri g h t

 212

 538

 4080

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  K a ti e

 T r y h a n e

 212

 325

 2713

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  Ha l e y

 Ch ri stofi d e s

 212

 325

 3720

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  Ma tt he w

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 212

 325

 2152

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 D IS CLOSU RE

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 AND

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 s eek s

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 do

 business w it h

  compa nies

  cover ed

  in

  it s

  r e s ea r ch

 r epor ts.

  A s

  a

 r es ult ,

  inve s tor s

  s hould

  be

  a w a r e

 tha t

  the

  F ir m

  m a y

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  a

 conf li ct

  of

  int e r es t

  tha t

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 Dental

 U pd ate Sur vey

 Sa y s :

 De ntal

 D em and

 Seemingly

 S tabl e

 L if e S ci ence T ools

 a nd

 Di a g nos ti cs

 |

 C ha nnel

 C heck

  ■ In tr o d u c i n g

 Im p l ants

 –

 S TM N

 o n

 To p :

 L a s t

 qua r ter ,

 w e a dded

 s ever a l

 ques ti ons r ela ted to

  denta l

  impla nts

  to

  ou r

  s u r vey ,

  a nd

  w e

 a ck now ledg e

 g r ea ter

  h i s tor ic a l

  cont e x t

  in

  f utu r e s ur vey s

 w ill

 d r ive

 m or e

  m ea ni ng f ul

 ta k ea w a y s .

 Uns urpr ising l y ,

 S tr au mann

  ( S TM N) br a nded

  impla n ts

  w er e

 uti li zed

  th e

 m os t

 on

  a ver a g e,

  r epr es enti n g

  36 %

  s ha r e

 ( vs .

  25 %

  in 3 Q ) ,

  a hea d

  of

  it s

  r eported

  m a r k et

  s ha r e

 pos it ioni ng

  ( ~ 25 % ) .

  T ha t

  s a id,

  w e

 r em a ined encour a g ed

  by

  E n v i sta

  H o l d i n g s ’

  (NV S T,

  N)

  pos it ioni ng ,

 w it h

  pr a ct it ioner s

  us ing

  it s pr em ium

  N obel

  B io ca r e

 b r a nd

  a nd

  discount

  Im pla nt

  Di r ect

  br a nd

  on

  14 %

  a nd

  7 %

  of r eleva nt

  ca s es ,

  r es pect ively .

  Mor eover ,

  w e

 a r e

 in cr em enta ll y

  op ti m istic

  a s

  it

  r ela tes

  to

  the pr os pect s

  of

 N VS T ’s

  new

  N - 1

 i mpla nt

 s y s tem

  ( a w a it ing

 U S

 r eg ula tor y

 a ppr ova l) ,

  a s

  m a ny denti s ts

 a w a it

 impla nt

 innova ti on

 tha t

 impr oves

 ea s e of

 us e a nd

  enha nces

 bioc om pa ti bil it y , pa r ti cul a r ly

 g iven

 the

 new

 s y s tem

 a ims

 to

 s implif y

 the

 impla nt

 p r oc es s

 w hil e a lso

 s upp or ti ng f a s ter

 oss eoint eg r a ti on.

 ■ S u pp l y

 c h ain ,

 D i r e c t

 D i st.,

 A maz o n

 U pd at e :

 H e n r y

 S c h e i n

 ( H S IC,

 N)

 a nd

 P at terso n Co mp ani e s

  ( P D CO,

  O P )

  w er e

 na m ed

  a s

  pr ima r y

  distr ibu tor s

  by

  51 %

  a nd

  13 %

  of r es pondents,

 r e s pect ively

 ( vs .

 38 %

 a nd

 18 %

 on

 a TT M - b a s is ) .

 T he

 va s t

 m a jor it y

 ( 76 % )

 is s a ti s f ied

  w it h

  it s

  p r ima r y

  distr ibutor ,

  a nd

  88 %

  do

  not

  w or k

  w it h

  GPO s ,

  a n

  uns urpr ising dy na m ic

  ( dif f er s

  m ea ning f ul ly

  f r om

  the

  A ni m a l

  Hea lt h

  m a r k et) .

  While

  A m a zon

  penetr a ti on r em a ins

  a

 que s ti on

  f or

  denta l

  distr ibutor s ,

  the

  m a jor it y

  of

  pr a ct it ioner

  A m a zon

  pur cha s es today

 ar e r ela ted

 to

 of f ic e s uppli es

 ( 36 % ) ,

 w it h

 only

 7 %

 o f

 s ta nda r d

 m edic a l

 pr oduct s

 ( e. g. , g loves,

  cot ton

  ba ll s )

  pu r cha s ed

  t hr oug h

  the

  e - c ommer ce

  g iant.

  Mor eover ,

  4 %

  ( vs .

  6 %

  in 3 Q)

  of

  denta l - s peci f ic

  consum a bles

  a r e

 pur cha s ed

  thr oug h

  A m a zon

  today ,

  w hi c h

  is

 onl y ex pected

  to

  g r ow

  to

  7 %

  in

  3 - 5

  y ea r s

  ba s ed

  on

  our

  cohor t .

  In

  te r m s

  of

  dir e ct

  distr ibu ti on, r es pon dents

  cur r entl y

  pur cha s e

 7 %

  of

  consum a bles

  ( 11 %

  of

  equipment)

  di r ect

  f r om m a nu f a ct ur er s ,

 w it h

 24 %

 a nd

 19 %

 of

 r es pondents

 ex pect ing

 to

 pu r cha s e

  m or e consum a ble s

 a nd

 equipment,

 r es pect ively ,

 di r ect l y

 f r om

 m a nuf a ct ur er s

 over

 the

 ne x t

 twelve m onths,

  a

 tr end

  tha t

  m a y

  cont i nue

  a s

  m a nuf a ct ur er s

  f ur ther

  in ves t

  in

  thei r

  int er na l

  s ales ef f or ts,

 i ncl udin g

 bot h

 XR A Y

 a nd

 N VS T .

  De nta l

 Sur vey

 T ak eawa ys

 We

  comm iss ioned

  a

 s ur vey

  of

  75

  pr a ct ic ing

  dent ists

 disper s ed

  a cr os s

  23

  s ta tes

  in

  the

  U .S ., w it h

  the

  hig hes t

  number

  of

  r es pon s es

  in

  C a li f or nia

  ( 15 ) ,

  N ew

  Y or k

  ( 10 ),

  a nd

  F lor ida

  ( 9 ) .

  O ur r es pondents

  r a ng e

 a cr os s

  a

 number

  of

  s peci a lt ies

 inc ludi n g

  g e ner a l

  denti s t

  ( 43 ) ,

  pe r iodont ist s ( 16 ) ,

 or thodont ist s

 ( 6 ) ,

 p...

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